Global Risk Predictor — Methodology

Methodology · How it works

From raw data to investment decisions: discover the 4 steps that transform financial data into decision intelligence.

GRP doesn't replace your historical models. It confronts them with a forward-looking reading of the company's trajectory.

Data Inference Score & Trajectory Report
Step 1

Intelligent Data Collection

GRP aggregates and structures financial, operational, and sector-specific data of the target company.

  • Financial statements (balance sheets, income statements, cash flows)
  • Sector ratios and market data
  • Automated cleaning and normalization
  • 11 to 30 ratios selected by sector
Step 2

Bayesian Inference & Sector Models

Each sector has its own probabilistic model, trained on thousands of ratio combinations.

  • 1 specific model per industry sector
  • Bayesian inference to estimate probabilities
  • Thousands of ratio combinations tested
  • Accuracy validated at 92% on historical data
Step 3

Resilience Score & Trajectory

The heart of GRP: a dynamic measure of the company's ability to withstand shocks over 12, 24 and 36 months.

  • Resilience score (0 to 1)
  • Default probability at 1, 2 and 3 years
  • Momentum (acceleration / deceleration of the trend)
  • Trajectory T-4 → T to anticipate deteriorations
Step 4

Reports & Actionable Alerts

Results are summarized in operational formats for your investment committees and daily monitoring.

  • Full PDF report for the committee (20+ pages)
  • Interactive Dashboard
  • Kill Switch real-time alerts
  • Prioritized operational recommendations

GRP vs historical models

Don't replace Piotroski, Altman, Beneish or FCF/EV. Systematically confront them with the real trajectory in every GRP report.

Piotroski F-Score

Value: 3 / 9

Traditional reading: Low quality

GRP reading: Confirmed by a resilience score of 0.34

Altman Z-Score

Value: 1.45

Traditional reading: Distress zone

GRP reading: 1-year PD at 32.5% — DSO to monitor

Beneish M-Score

Value: -1.95

Traditional reading: Grey zone

GRP reading: Confirms a structural low resilience

FCF / EV

Value: 1.8%

Traditional reading: Very low cash

GRP reading: Negative trajectory (T-4 → T) — deterioration confirmed

Every GRP report includes this confrontation. Your historical models + the GRP trajectory = an informed decision.

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